TIME TO START APPLYING POLITICAL FACTS NOT SENTIMENTS
WHY PETER OBI WON’T BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF NIGERIA
By Dr. Sunday Adelaja.
So many people ask me if I’m Obidient or not. I had tried to shy away from the answer so I don’t offend the feelings of those who are truly sold out to the ideas of Peter Obi to be the next Nigerian President. Unfortunately I have a different opinion on this matter. I’m sorry to disappoint you guys, but the truth is I have a good track record when it comes to taking a political position either in Nigeria or on the world stage at large. I almost never ever miss it when I announce my position on similar issues. My secret is simple, I do my research, I look for empirical evidences while I put sentiments aside. Guys, either you like it or not, I’m going to be right again this time. Just like I was right with Buhari, while most of my colleagues were prophesying Jonathan. So was the case with Trump, Joe Biden, Anthony Joshua etc. Nigeria’s next president is going to be Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Last week I have already presented my reasons why Tinubu will become our next president. In this article I enumerate the 10 reasons and arguments why I don’t believe Peter Obi is going to emerge as the next President of Nigeria.
1. We can argue about many things, but it’s impossible to argue against facts and statistics. I hear people say that if Peter Obi loses the elections it’ll be because others bribed or bought the electorates. I beg to disagree. Peter Obi will surely lose this presidential elections in 2023 not because of any conspiracies, but because of simple statistics and facts. In fact he has already lost it. As much as I don’t wish to break the hearts of those believing in miracles, I tell you politics is not about miracles it’s all about facts and statistics. Both facts and statistics are not on the side of Peter Obi unfortunately. So let’s talk facts and statistics now; Nigeria has 176,847 polling units, for Peter Obi to win the presidential elections he will need to recruit minimum of that number of agents either for money or somehow. Remember these are not just ordinary observers, to be a party agent is like a full time job. How many companies or organizations in the world can manage to employ almost 200,000 able body people. It’s a daunting challenge that takes years to fully get ready for. Peter Obi can do this but he surely needs more time to mobilize, train, and support that amount of workers. Besides the polling units agents we also have 8809 wards, all these wards must not just be manned by his political party, they must have ward party organizations in all these wards. To win a presidential election in Nigeria, India, or America, your party is only as strong as its strength in the ward level. Basically what this means is a party must have close to 9 thousand party branches to successfully run for the presidency in Nigeria. I strongly doubt it that the Labour Party of Peter Obi has 8809 party branches in Nigeria. No wonder all their previous attempts at elections all ended up in failure. In fact only two political parties can boldly boast of such universal representation in Nigerian politics, they are APC and PDP. Most political parties are in the seventh heaven when they have their party in all the country’s local government areas. We have 774 local governments in Nigeria, to build a strong party unit in each of these local governments is only the beginning of building a party structure. Even when you have all these in place, it’s still not a guarantee that you’ll do well in a general election. The most important weakness that places a nail on the presidential coffin of Peter Obi is the fact that his party doesn’t have any elective officials in most of these places. There are approximately 5000 elective officials in Nigeria. They belong to different electoral categories, these officials are most influential over their electorates, basically they control the political nervous system of the nation. The president is elected by a simple majority of the people. The National Assembly has two chambers. The House of Representatives has 360 members, elected for a four-year term in single-seat constituencies. Those who voted for those representatives are usually more familiar with them than someone they only see on television, hence they easily follow their lead. The Senate has 109 members, elected for a four-year term, each of the 36 states are divided into 3 senatorial districts, each of which is represented by one senator; the Federal Capital Territory is represented by only one senator. What I’m trying to say is that all these elected officials are basically taking over the electorates, these officials relate more closely to the people on ground. It’s not the same as someone far away from them. Other elected officials nationwide are likewise known to the electorates of their particular region. At the general elections these elected officials will go back to their bases and basically instruct them on whom to give their votes. In this case, most will agitate for their own political parties. Apart from these, you still have state and local government elections. The gubernatorial elections for state governors - 36 of them and the governor of the capital city. Then you have house of assembly elections to elect representatives for the 36 states. Apart from that we have the local government chairmen and councilors of the 774 Local Government Areas. So what happens in a general elections for the President is that 90% of these voters will vote in the direction of what the people they know tell them. Some people are dreaming that what happened in the just concluded elections in Osun State might take place in presidential elections in Peter Obi’s favour. No it won’t, the party that won in Osun is PDP, a party that has all the elective positions listed above. They have been on ground for a long time, they had paid their dues. In Nigeria of today it’s always going to be either APC or PDP. If we even assume that a miracle happens and Obi is elected without having the majority from his party in all these strategic positions then he could be easily impeached or be paralyzed politically such that he won’t be able to do anything. To cut a long story short only the political parties that control all these elective positions win rule the nation, be it in Nigeria, India, or United States. This is the end of the road for Peter Obi and his Obidient Revolution. They might be able to win something in future but not now, for that they need a longer period of preparation.
2. Peter Obi’s claim that infrastructure doesn’t bring development is another reason why I can’t recommend him to become Nigeria’s President. Peter Obi was once quoted saying “You can't use infrastructure to improve the economy”. He said it on National television on the morning show of AriseTv breakfast program of 2021. I can only hope Peter simply goofed up that day, I’m almost certain he is already regretting he made that statement. But if this happens to be his stand and belief then things are much worse than I had thought. If America is thinking of infrastructure, in spite of the advancement it has made, I doubt that prioritising this by Nigeria could be wrong. If someone is downplaying the role of infrastructure in economic development of a nation, that person has no business running for a national elective position. If you go to South Africa today you’ll think their economy is much bigger than ours, just because they have a highly developed infrastructure, prime among which is electricity, and transportation. No wonder people in Anambra hardly reference Peter Obi’s achievements, but rather talk more about Chris Ngige’s infrastructural strides. It’s now understandable why Peter keeps boasting about the money he saved for Anambra, the same money he could have used to develop the state’s infrastructure. What benefit is the money saved and not used while people are dying of hunger and lack of basic amenities in the land. Peter, with all due respect you cannot become the president of Nigeria without believing in the pivotal role of infrastructure in national development.
Peter, with all due respect you cannot become the president of Nigeria without believing in the pivotal role of infrastructure in national development.
3. The pandora files: Pandora files report is another reason why I cannot recommend Peter Obi to be the next President of Nigeria. The Pandora Files investigation is part of the global International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ)-led Pandora Papers project. The project saw 600 journalists from 150 news organisations around the world poring through a trove of 11.9 million confidential files, contextualising information, tracking down sources and analysing public records and other documents. Mr Obi is one of the individuals whose hidden business activities was thrown open by the project. Indeed, he has a number of secret business dealings and relationships that he has for years kept hidden from his Anambra people whom he governed, from Nigerian people over whom he plans to rule. The very reason why candidates must declare their assets is to avoid secret dealings. But Peter Obi decided to take Nigerians and people of his state for granted by not only doing false declarations of assets, but also going on national television platforms to make his outrageous statements on his holier than thou pious lifestyle. Peter Obi committed a punishable act by getting involved in the secrets exposed by the Pondera files reports. These are businesses he clandestinely set up and operated overseas, including in notorious tax and secrecy havens in ways that breached Nigerian laws. The former governor admitted that he did not declare these companies and the funds and properties they hold in his asset declaration filings with the Code of Conduct Bureau, the Nigerian government agency that deals with the issues of corruption, conflict of interest, and abuse of office by public servants. He said he was unaware that the law expected him to declare assets or companies he jointly owns with his family members or anyone else. If Peter Obi is truly a conscientious man he will go and apologize before his Anambra people and pay compensations to the tax and revenue office of Nigeria before trying to sell himself to the nation. His failure to do so shows his lack of shame and conscience. I personally don’t want a president who will secretly stuff away the wealth of our poor people in some secret locations all over the world. The real problem with off- shore money is that it is first of all money laundering and secondly it is tax fraud. Peter Obi confessed on national television that he committed these two crimes but he never apologized for them. In saner climates someone involved with such will be in prison or at least not contesting for the presidency of the land. Some say Tinubu is worse, but somehow his name wasn’t found in these secret and dubious deals of an international proportions, only Peter Obi is there. This raises a big question mark how someone like that has the effrontery to try to become the President of the very country he had so brutally deceived. He must think we Nigerians are all a bunch of foolish idiots or something.
4. The investment of state money in his own family business which he didn’t deny. Peter Obi claimed that the company belonged to his parents, and he had no dealings in it after he became a public officer. He stated this in response to a question by Kadaria Ahmed, host of ‘The Candidates’, a presidential town hall co-production between Daria Media and the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA), with support from the MacArthur Foundation, held in Abuja in 2019. In his words “Personally, I have no investment; not even one Naira. Go to Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) today, if you will see Peter Obi as owner of one share; it doesn’t exist. Next is a family company started by my own parents and as their child, I ran it at a time, and when I became Governor, I had nothing to do with it till today.” What does Governor Peter Obi understand by the oath he swore to on assumption of office: ”that I will not allow my personal interest to influence my official conduct or any official decisions.” Let’s see another self indicting statement from the horse’s mouth, “I also invested $50million of Anambra State money in the power sector. I invested several billions in banks, including banks where I have shares. I was investing for the future of the state; it doesn’t matter whether I have shares or not. If I have the opportunity of building the future of the state, wouldn’t I have done that?” He continues in his boastful manner “I brought International Breweries into Nigeria and as a Governor of a state, they built a greenfield facility in the state and they came to me and said ‘as our partner, we want you to own 15 per cent of this company’, and I said to them ‘No, right now, I am the Governor of a state. I know the future of this brewery, and I want the state to own 10 per cent and since I’m no longer involved in the company, they can own five per cent’. I put in $30million of state money there, it’s now worth $100million and it’s still there. No other state in this country has such investment.” Unfortunately the investment he said will benefit the state has now crashed and turned to a big liability worth only at most $5 million today. If Nigeria were to be a society of law and order, Peter Obi should be serving jail terms based on his own public confession. Instead of Peter Obi to hide his head in shame or at least repent before Anambra people he is now trying to go to a higher stage to become the President of Nigeria. He actually boasts about these his compromising investments, selling it to Nigerians as his ingenuity. Compare that to what Tinubu did in Lagos. He invested 4 billion Naira of the state into a certain Econet company and brought back 19 billion before he left office. Please note that Tinubu didn’t invest the money in his family business, apart from that the results here are totally different. So who will I rather have as the president? Your guess is as good as mine.
5. I speak now as a representative of one of the nationalities of Nigeria that Nnamdi Kanu and Ipob aggressively insulted and abused. I expect anyone from the Igbo extractions wanting to rule over all the tribes and nationalities in Nigeria to first condemn and apologize for the actions of Ipob and Nnamdi Kanu. I can’t see Peter Obi’s statement against the excesses of Nnamdi Kanu and Ipob. Rather I saw him defending Ipob on channel TV, saying he disagrees with the government designating them as a terrorist organization. How can someone with a clear conscience defend Ipob and not apologize to other Nigerians. You cannot spend years keeping quiet about the degrading of all tribes and nationalities in Nigeria and now expect them to vote for you. Either we like it or not the North still control the majority of votes in Nigeria, without their votes no one can emerge as Nigerian president. Those votes will be divided between Atiku and Tinubu, Peter needs to build a bridge with the North in a more purposeful manner. This has to start by making his position clear on Ipob and Biafra agitations. You cannot say you are a Biafra agitator and want to become the Nigerian President. Anambra is still doing sit at home till today what is he doing about it, let him use his popularity to first put his own house in order. This is not the only apology that must come from Peter Obi, he also must apologize to Northerners and Westerns specifically for his own direct assault on peoples of these regions. Let’s go back in history, Peter Obi demonstrated a form of hate and discrimination to these peoples. The way he treated them after the Onitsa crisis of 2006, over 100 Northerners were killed, markets belonging to them burnt down. That’s isn’t what Obi should apologize for though, for he wasn’t in power when that happened he came only a few months after that incident. It was his duty to clean up the mess. Peter needs to apologize for the way he treated the victims.
He took away their markets, he shunned two Emirs from the North who were sent on emissary to plead with him, worse of all he rejected the pleas of Sultan of Sokoto who came down to him to beg him for a peaceful settlement of the issue. Those surviving northerners and westerners had to relocate to Asaba where they are till today. There are several issues like this coming from the time of Peter Obi’s governorship in Anambra. It should also be noted that Peter Obi likewise deported people of Northern extraction back to kaduna during his tenure as the governor of Anambra state. Unfortunately for him The North never forgets, Southerners might forget and forgive, but Northerners will ask questions because they remember. So the chance of Peter Obi getting a large enough number of votes to become a President without the North is equal to zero.
6. Peter Obi from his antecedents is a desperate User and Exploiter. Peter Obi is not better than Atiku, neither is he better than Tinubu, his Labour Party is not better if not worse than PDP and APC. Unfortunately Nigerians are more driven by emotions and sentiments rather than by critical thinking and analysis. If Peter Obi could be a member of PDP more so a leader there, their vice presidential flag bearer, it means he encapsulates and embraces the essence and values of that party. He could not be a vice presidential candidate and not be aware of the corruption and vote buying that led to his emergence as the Vice President to Atiku. It also shows that he Peter Obi agrees with Atiku, his values and practices. No wonder a few days ago he was seen cajoling around the worst ruler alive in Nigeria, the Maradona himself Ibrahim Babangida. Others have speculated that he is being sponsored by former president Olusegun Obasanjo. Listen, Peter Obi is not a better man than these men, but a worse man because he disguises his parochial selfish ambition under the canopy of self righteousness. The only reason he is now born again is because PDP was not willing to help him realize his personal ambition as as to use them to become President of Nigeria, this is a clear behavioral pattern of a User and Exploiter. He is now doing it again by exploiting and using the social media crowd for his own personal ambition. According to the people who know Peter Obi better than you and I, what they say about him is not very palatable. Especially from those people who were in the same parties with him at one time or the other. According to them, Obi is a serial betrayer, user and exploiter, not a disciplined party man. He is only driven by self interest, howbeit in a subtle and cold blooded manner. So PDP was not doing anything wrong when he was their vp candidate, now he is painting a picture of holier than thou as why he had to leave PDP. Didn’t he know that Atiku was corrupt when he agreed To run with him. The governor of Rivers’s state and the leadership of APGA think Peter Obi is a user, exploiter and betrayer. APGA is still calling him an accursed person till today. He once took a vow never to leave APGA, but let them down because he couldn’t use them on the national level to become the President of Nigeria. He used and exploited APGA to become the governor, telling them all the things they wanted to hear until they trusted him with power. Peter Obi in his characteristic manner also used, exploited and dumped Anambra state, before moving on to Lagos and Abuja, this time to use and exploit Nigeria. Peter Obi wants to use Labour Party which is a platform totally different from all the capitalist values Peter Obi stood for all his life. Labour Party is a leftist socialist party according to their constitution while Peter Obi is a conservative capitalist who had lived and destroyed all the values Labour fought for always. Peter Obi will use and exploit them again while hiding his true identity. When they don’t deliver him the presidency, he will again betray and dump them. This is his track record, his pattern of behavior, his method and approach to life.
It’s the only thing he knows and does; use, exploit and betray. It’s difficult to think he won’t do the same with those Nigerians trusting him today, he will use, exploit and later betray them.
7. Many Nigerians are not aware of the N250 million allegedly found in the convoy of the governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi in June 2009. He was once caught with 250 million security votes money that his security convoys were trying to smuggle out, as his opponents suggested. This is most likely a case of money laundering, they were caught in Lagos and the case was buried by the then government of the day. The only explanation Obi gave then came through his Media Assistant saying and I quote; “The money belonged to a government contractor who preferred to carry cash to buy vehicles ordered by government”. Questions remain on why the money should be with the governor’s aid. Do you know that in Europe if the authorities find you with such amount of cash, you stand a good chance of getting 10 years imprisonment. The point I’m trying to make is when you do a thorough search and research on Peter Obi, you’ll come to the same conclusion as myself that he isn’t the Messiah Nigeria needs at this time in her history.
8. My next reason why Peter Obi is not our next President is that I believe Asiwaju is better. The academic qualification of Asiwaju is better, but even more important than that the results on ground of Asiwaju’s works are more convincing. The results of their stewardship convince me that Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a better manager of men and resources. You only need to take a look at the two states governed by the two of them to know who is better. Jesus said we should judge people by their fruits. I cannot see the abiding fruits of Peter Obi’s stewardship in Anambra state, or anywhere else but I see Asiwaju’s fruits in Lagos. Hence most of the non indigenes in Lagos come from Anambra state, they find a better platform here than at home. It’s one of the biggest testimonies to the one who is better of the two. But more than that I want to provide you some arguments that should convince an objective seeker that Tinubu deserves to be President ahead of Peter Obi. (1) TINUBU was the first politician to start "Economic Summit" this talks about the visionary sagacity of the man. (2)TINUBU pioneered the "Treasury Single Account (TSA)". This was later adopted by the Federal Government with much success. (3) TINUBU was about to put an end to electricity problem by starting "Independent Power Project" in partnership with Enron in Lagos state. If not for Obasanjo and PDP government who forced Tinubu to give up the power to national grid, there wouldn’t be the problem of electricity in Lagos state by now. (4) TINUBU introduced "Digital Economy" to governance through Lagos Tax Administration. I believe he can repeat that at the national level. (5) TINUBU as a Governor "Created 37 Local Govt. Council Development Areas (LCDAs)". This is a major part of restructuring that many are only clamoring for now. (6)TINUBU brought innovation to education when he began to appoint Pupils who Excelled Academically as Acting Governor of Lagos. (7) TINUBU was the first Governor to involve Nigerians from other states to work and become officials of Lagos state government. (8) TINUBU was first to break the master plan machinery of elections rigging in Nigeria thereby helping to reclaim SouthWest states stolen mandates from PDP. (9)TINUBU was the first and last Governor who governed his state for years without the full Federal Allocation (FAAC) from Abuja. (10) TINUBU was the leader who started Telecommunication revolution in Nigeria through Econet before it became a national success story. Many more things could be said, I believe Tinubu is head and shoulders above any other candidates in this race, that including Peter Obi.
9. Another reason I can’t support the ambition of Peter Obi is that, I cannot see the trace of Peter Obi’s rule in Anambra state. The only person who praises the works of Peter Obi in Anambra is Peter Obi himself. I keep wondering though why is he not living in his wonderful Anambra state. I tried to talk to people from Anambra and when I research the internet I see that Anambra people talk more about the works of Chris Ngige. Even though Peter Obi himself handpicked Obiano as his successor, yet the same Obiano rubbishes most of Obi’s claims. He denied for example that Obi left billions in the coffers of Anambra state. Obiano says the opposite that it’s only debt he inherited from Peter Obi. If you want to see and hear from the horses mouth from Anambra state government, go to YouTube and search for Channels Tv 16/11/2015 Anambra Inherited Debt. The secretary to the state government basically said Peter Obi is lying. He too denied the claims by Peter Obi that he left 75 billion Naira to the state. The successors said they only met 9 billion naira in the account of the state. While they inherited the debt of 185 billion Naira. It doesn’t matter what side you choose to side with, the fact still remains the same that Peter Obi isn’t the person he claims to be. He cannot be trusted. Those who are putting their hope in him now will eventually hit the floor hard in disappointment and disillusionment. Some of you are not happy with Buhari’s government, but Obi’s stewardship if given the chance will be much worse than that of Buhari.
10. Finally Peter Obi is a sophist. Peter Obi talks too much, too much sweet talk and by so doing he shoots himself in the feet. His whole popularity is built on sophistry, manipulating the masses by telling them what they want to hear. Making the gullible youth believe in bogus statements and declarations. His claim that none of his children uses a car has been debunked. It happens his son has a car in England. A simple fact check by those who know the family well says the opposite of whatever Obi claims. For example they say, Peter Obi’s son lives in UK, drives a 2017 BMW X6 worth approximately N60million and he has been driving same since February 2018. Oseloka his son is an actor and movie producer, remember his father Peter Obi has been going around Nigeria telling everyone his son doesn’t own a car, well maybe a car in Nigeria. One time he said he never changed his wrist watch in 17 years and soon after 3 to 5 pictures were retrieved from the internet where he was wearing different watches. Another time he claimed to have only one house in Nigeria, until materials surfaced that he has more real estates than most rich Nigerians, only they are in the care of his junior brother. There are too many information out there of things he had said that a simple research have found out to be lies or untrue. Right now even google has started documenting the lies of Peter Obi. He himself came out saying he never said the investment he made in the brewery has grown to a 100 million dollars. Meanwhile the video is out there for everyone to see. His team keeps telling lies to promote him, his whole image is built on lies, starting with him himself. It is a delusional image of a false Messiah. The present Governor of Anambra State had to come out publicly to disassociate himself from such a lie. Same was done by the former Emir of Kano Sanusi. Whatever is build on lies doesn’t go far, hence I’m sure the presidential ambition of Peter Obi has a very short lifespan.
May God bless The Federal Republic Of Nigeria, and may all her haters live long to witness it.
For The Love Of God, Church And Nation
Dr. Sunday Adelaja
Kyiv, Ukraine
2022.
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